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2/23/2023 | Report OSAC Analysis
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OSAC Ukraine Update: One-Year Anniversary

February 23, 2023

 

 

Dear Colleagues:

 

This report is released on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. OSAC will publish ad hoc reports, as needed. The OSAC Signal group will continue to operate as normal. OSAC has also established an OSAC Ukraine Portal, which will include all OSAC products on Ukraine, including previous situation reports.

 

If you would like to receive future OSAC Ukraine updates and/or to join a dedicated Signal group, please sign up below. 

 

OSAC Europe Team

OSACEurope@state.gov | OSAC.gov 

 

 

 

One-Year Anniversary

Situation in Russia

International Response

Land Border Information

Cybersecurity Issues

Protest Activity

New Open-Source Articles of Interest

Resources Shared Among OSAC Members

OSAC Support

Additional Resources

One-Year Anniversary

  • Ukraine is expecting a potential surge of Russian attacks timed to the anniversary of the war on February 24. Ukraine is urging people to avoid large crowds and is calling on schools to hold classes remotely. There continues to be ongoing heightened threat of missile attacks across Ukraine, including Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Observe air alarms, shelter appropriately, and follow guidance from local authorities.
    • For much of the winter, the war in Ukraine settled into a slow-moving fight along the frontline in the southeast. However, with an influx of Western-supplied weapons, Russia could potentially be looking to use the one-year anniversary of the invasion to go on the offensive using the approximately 320,000 Russian soldiers already in Ukraine and 150,000 estimated to be at training sites.
    • According to Ukraine, Putin has given order to take all of the Donbas region by March. Russia could potentially be seeking a symbolic victory in Bakhmut, where both forces have been fighting since May 2022.
      • On February 23, the UK Defense Ministry said that over the last 48 hours, heavy fighting has continued in Bakhmut where Ukrainian forces are keeping resupply routes open to the west despite Russia’s slow encirclement over the last six weeks.
      • It also added that there is a possibility that Russia is preparing for another offensive in the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, despite failing in early February and late 2022; the offensive is not expected to achieve a breakthrough.
    • There have been speculations and reports of a possible offensive from the north and northeast; however, OSAC does not have information to substantiate the claims. While Russian forces could potentially open a new front in this arena, it is more likely that they will focus on capturing the Donbas region by focusing on the south and southeast, especially before Ukrainian forces can utilize incoming Western-supplied equipment.
    • Any major offensive likely could include even more intense Russian artillery barrages and bombings, followed by tank and infantry ground assaults. Attacks against other parts of the country, including targeting civilian infrastructure, cannot be ruled out.
  • There was an air-raid alarm in Kyiv on February 23, which had been triggered by a Russian reconnaissance drone, which Ukraine successfully shot down.
  • Explosions were also reported in Mariupol for the second night in a row.
  • According to the UK Defense Ministry, Russian forces and private contractors have likely suffered 175,000 to 200,000 casualties since the start of the war, with between 40,000-60,000 soldiers killed. The ministry said the ratio is high because of “rudimentary medical provision” across much of Russia’s forces, with artillery reportedly causing the majority Russia’s casualties.
    • According to the U.S., the Wagner Group reportedly has suffered more than 30,000 casualties in the last year, with about 9,000 of those fighters killed in action. The U.S. also estimates that 90% of the Wagner mercenaries killed in Ukraine since December 2022 were convicts; and half of the overall deaths among them occurred since mid-December, as fighting in Bakhmut intensified.
    • According to Norway’s defense chief, Ukraine has 100,000 soldiers killed or injured in the last year.
    • On both sides, it is difficult to confirm the actual numbers.
  • Russia announced the full reopening to car traffic of a key Crimea bridge that was damaged by a blast in October 2022.
  • The number of checkpoints have increased dramatically in Kyiv. New checkpoints have reportedly appeared on the Kharkiv massif at the entrance from Boryspil, in Troyeshchyna (on Balzac Street) and in other places. At each of the checkpoints, a significant number of armed police officers, mostly in camouflage uniforms, have been seen.
  • Ukrainian communities in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are reportedly experiencing limited power supply, due to damaged power distribution facilities. Meanwhile, scheduled outages remain in place in the Odessa region where repair works continue on the highly damaged infrastructure.
  • On February 20, Energoatom claimed that more than 600 Russian military personnel were being housed in bomb shelter of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) while awaiting transfer to the Donetsk Oblast. Energoatom also claimed that Russia continued to build fortifications and build “military structures” around the plant’s power units and dry storage.
  • On February 19, a Kyiv-Warsaw train derailed in the Volyn region near the railway bridge over the Turia River heading towards Poland. No passengers were injured, and an investigation remains ongoing into the cause of the derailment.
  • According to Ukraine, since October 2022, Russia has reportedly fired 255 missiles that hit 112 infrastructure targets, including energy facilities.
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is reportedly leaving a toxic trace on Ukrainian soil, contaminating crops and posing a serious long-term risk to human health. Also, according to the Ukrainian environment ministry, Russia’s invasion has inflicted more than USD 51 billion in environmental damage on Ukraine.
    • Rockets and shells have scorched approximately 150,000 acres of forests and plantations, while estimated 687,000 tons of petrochemicals have burned as a result of shelling, and estimated 1,600 tons of pollutants have leaked into bodies of water. Hazardous chemicals have reportedly contaminated around 70 acres of soil. Also, some 15% of farmland in Ukraine has been littered with land mines.
      • Ukraine is one of the world’s most important producers and exporters of cereals and oilseeds, including corn, wheat, barley, and sunflower oil.
    • According to the UN Environment Program (UNEP), an estimated 618 industrial or critical infrastructure sites have been damaged or destroyed in the year since the invasion started. Actual numbers are expected to be substantially higher.
    • Some of the worst-hit areas are in the southern and eastern parts of the country.
    • A Ukrainian non-profit is building a database documenting the environmental impacts of Russia’s war.
  • According to the UN (February 21), Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left at least 8,006 civilians dead and 13,287 injured over the past year. Actual figures are most likely to be substantially higher, as these numbers only reflect verified individual cases. According to U.S. estimates, in November 2022, around 40,000 civilians had died in the conflict.
    • According to the UN Human Rights Office’s mission in Ukraine, of the adult civilian casualties whose sex was known, men accounted for 61.1% of civilian casualties and women for 39.9%. At least 487 children were killed and 954 injured. Again, this number is likely to be substantially higher.
    • Approximately 90% of civilian casualties were caused by explosive weapons with wide area effects, including artillery shells as well as cruise and ballistic missiles. Most occurred in populated areas. Mines and explosive remnants of war has caused 632 civilian casualties – 219 killed and 413 injured.
    • Along with electricity and water shortages during the winter months, nearly 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, while some 14 million people have been displaced from their homes.
  • According to Ukraine, since the start of the invasion, 1,218 Ukrainian health facilities have been damaged, including 540 damaged hospitals, with 173 completely destroyed. Ukraine has also said that 106 medical workers have been killed during the same time.
  • In the latest October 2022 Ukraine Travel Advisory, the U.S. Department of State updated its advice to U.S. citizens to not travel to Ukraine due to Russia’s full-scale invasion. It also keeps its previous advice that U.S. citizens in Ukraine should depart if it is safe to do so using commercial or other privately available ground transportation options.

Situation in Russia

  • On February 23, Putin reportedly pledged to increase Russian arms production and develop “all components” of its armed forces. He said that it will equip Russian troops with “new strike systems, reconnaissance and communication equipment, drones, and artillery systems”.
    • Russia’s Wagner mercenary force said that their troops had started receiving additional supplies of ammunition after it accused the Russian defense minister and chief of staff for trying to destroy their mercenaries by depriving them of ammunition. The Wagner Group has been deeply involved in the siege of Bakhmut in east Ukraine.
  • On February 21, Putin made his first State of the Nation speech since 2021. He made it clear that he intends to continue with the “special military operation” in Ukraine. He also suspended Russia from the New START treaty. However, Russia will reportedly continue to comply with restrictions in New START Treaty on number of carriers and nuclear warheads and notification of ballistic missile launches.
    • President Biden criticized Russia’s decision to suspend the treaty, but said that there was “no evidence” that Moscow was moving closer to actually using an atomic weapon.
  • Arrests and criminal charges against individuals for “discrediting” the Russian forces continued.
    • Moscow Department of the Investigative Committee charged activist Maksim Lypkan, whose house was also searched, with spreading “fake” information about the “special military operation”. The case was initiated because of Lypkan’s interview with Radio Liberty last week, in which he talked about his previous protests and about his attempt to get permission for a protest rally on February 24 on Lubyanka Square. 
    • Lipetsk authorities opened a case against local activist Stanislav Korvyakov on the repeated “discrediting” of the army for his posts on Yandex.Dzen. 
    • In Moscow, the Investigative Committee opened a second criminal case on “fakes” about the Russian army against founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team investigative project, Ruslan Leviev.
    • A Kirov court sentenced in absentia the composer, author of the Kirov anthem and former conductor of the Vyatka Philharmonic Prokhor Protasov to five years in prison.  He was found guilty of spreading “fakes” about the army because of his posts about the “special military operation”.
  • Sabotage activities targeting military infrastructure and charges against individuals for planning such acts also continued.
    • The Belgorod Regional Court sentenced two defendants to 3.5 years in a maximum-security prison in the case of preparing sabotage on the railways. The verdict was the first in the case of sabotage since the beginning of the “special military operation”.
    • Security forces in Yaroslavl opened a criminal case under the terrorist act article against 19-year-old local resident Valeria Zotova because, according to investigators, she was going to set fire to a collection point for aid for the mobilized. 
  • The Russian State Circus Company purchased helmets and body armor for its employees for 2.3 million rubles (USD 306,400). The company explained that it decided to purchase ammunition for employees who will go on business trips to the territory of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”. 
  • On February 22, South Africa, Russia, and China opened joint naval exercises. Russia reportedly ruled out a possible hypersonic nuclear-capable missile launch during these exercises that will last until February 27.
  • The U.S. Embassy in Moscow said that leading up to the anniversary on February 24, rallies and other events are planned throughout Moscow and may occur across Russia, advising U.S. citizens to avoid all political or social protests and to not photograph security personnel at these events. Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations.
  • On February 13, the U.S. Department of State updated its advice to U.S. citizens to not travel to Russia due to unpredictable consequences of the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the potential for harassment and the singling out of U.S. citizens for detention by Russian government security officials, the arbitrary enforcement of local law, limited flights into and out of Russia, the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia, and the possibility of terrorism. This language is similar to previous Russian Travel Advisories.
    • Since the start of the invasion, the Department has been warning U.S. citizens to not travel to Russia and for U.S. citizens residing or traveling to Russia to depart immediately.
    • However, the most recent advisory added information about recent government mobilization to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s possible refusal to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, subjecting them to mobilization, prevention from their departure from Russia, and/or the dual nationals’ conscription.
    • The advisory also added information about multiple security incidents in southwestern Russia, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as information about the international community, including the United States and Ukraine, not recognizing Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea as well as four other Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. It further adds information about the situation in the recently purported annexed Ukrainian territories.

International Response    

  • Albania: The State Police announced on February 20 that they had detained a vessel carrying 22,500 tons of contraband fuel coming from Russia in Durres Port.
  • Belarus: A leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News reportedly lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document reportedly provides granular details of an annexation by political, economic, and military means. Issued in fall 2021, the document outlines an end goal: formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030.
    • Amid the fighting in Ukraine, Lukashenka said that Belarus will form new “paramilitary units” in every town or village to serve as a territorial defense force “in case of aggression” to complement the country’s military. The 150,000 volunteers will reportedly be issued weapons but keep their civilian jobs.
  • Belgium: According to the Belgian financial newspaper L’Echo, approximately 10 of the 240 Belgian companies present in Russia at the start of the war have departed. Companies that remained argued that while they wanted to cease operations, it was too difficult to sell a Western company in Russia, as such transactions were heavily scrutinized by the Russian authorities. 
    • Companies like brewing company AB InBev and chemical company Solvay announced that they were conducting negotiations to sell their Russian branches, but neither had succeeded yet. 
      • Other companies such as hygiene product manufacturer Ontex argued that their decision to stay was driven by their responsibility to provide essential sanitary products to the local population. 
  • Bucharest 9 (B9): On February 22 in Warsaw, President Duda and Slovak President Caputova co-hosted a special Bucharest Nine (B9) summit with President Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss strengthening NATO’s eastern flank and further support for Ukraine. Bucharest 9’s members are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
    • The B9 leaders adopted a joint declaration that reiterated Russia is the most significant and direct threat to the security of NATO and that in the run-up to the Vilnius summit, the B9 states would continue to reinforce the deterrence and defense posture across the entire eastern flank. 
    • The B9 leaders emphasized NATO’s “forward defense” policy and voiced support for a fast NATO accession of Finland and Sweden. 
    • Stressing Ukraine’s “legitimate right to defend itself against the Russian aggression,” they declared they would continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary. 
    • They also firmly supported Ukraine’s Euro–Atlantic aspirations and said that they “stand ready to cooperate closely and support” Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which were most at risk of the Kremlin’s destabilizing and malign influence.
  • China: China’s foreign ministry said on February 22 that the country was not considering sending lethal support to Moscow to use in Ukraine. The ministry accused the United States and NATO of spreading falsehoods about China’s potential role in the conflict.
    • China’s top diplomatic advisor told Putin that China and Russia need to be more flexible while facing new international circumstances during a meeting at the Kremlin on February 22.
    • The Chinese foreign minister said on February 21 that China wants to play a role in ending the conflict in Ukraine. The foreign minister also “urge[d]… relevant countries to immediately stop adding fuel to the fire, stop shifting blames to China, and stop hyping up the discourse of Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.”
      • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he has not seen any official peace plan from China.
    • The U.S. is reportedly considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
  • Croatia: At the Munich Security Conference on February 18, Prime Minister Plenkovic pledged that Croatia will continue to militarily assist Ukraine in its efforts to resist Russian aggression, according to its capabilities.
  • Cyprus: On February 14, Cyprus announced that Ukrainian nationals in Cyprus would receive a one-year extension on their temporary protection status until March 4, 2024. UNHCR estimates 80,331 Ukrainian refugees arrived in Cyprus between February 2022 and January 2023.
  • Czech Republic: Czech President-elect Pavel said on February 21 that U.S. President Biden’s visit to Kyiv and Warsaw was an “extremely strong signal” of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine and its European allies. He also warned against negotiating with Russia and cautioned that Russia should not be underestimated.
    • Regarding a question about supplying Ukraine with military aircraft, Pavel was cautious, saying it takes at least six months to train pilots, ground, and support crews, and that it’s much easier to train crews for tanks and artillery.
    • Prime Minister Fiala provided new details on the government’s CZK 40 billion (~USD 1.8 billion) military aid on February 22, noting that it included 89 tanks, 226 infantry-fighting vehicles, 38 howitzers, six air-defense systems, four helicopters, 33 multiple rocket launches, and more than 1.5 million rounds of ammunition.
    • Interior Minister Rakusan expects that 25% to 33% of Ukrainian refugees might remain in the Czech Republic after the war ends.
    • Results from a January 2023 STEM institute poll indicate a majority of Czechs approve of the Western response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, while a third do not have a clear stance on the matter, and there has been no significant increase in the number of pro-Russia respondents (10%). 
      • An estimated 60% of Czechs continue to support accepting Ukrainian refugees, which is slightly higher than results in September (57%), but slightly lower than when first queried in April (70%). 
      • Lastly, 58% of Czechs view EU membership as positive for the country’s security, compared to 30% who see the impact as negative. 
  • Estonia: Prime Minister Kallas said on February 19 that once the war in Ukraine ends, Russia must be brought to justice for war crimes, as well as for the decision to invade its neighbor if it is to have any chance of developing normal relations with the West.
  • European Council: On February 22, EU ambassadors to the European Council agreed to extend the sanctions against Lukashenka and his inner circle for another year. The sanctions include visa restrictions and asset freezes on 195 individuals and 34 organizations in Belarus. No new sanctions against Belarus were announced.
  • European Union: EU member states met on February 21 to discuss the 10th package of sanctions against Russia.
    • Hungary reportedly pushed back against a proposal of the Baltic states and Poland to make it easier to sanction the family members and entourage of sanctioned Russian oligarchs.
      • Hungary is also making its approval of the rollover of the EU’s existing individual sanctions list – subject to a six-month review and expected in mid-March – conditional on the removal of four unspecified individuals from the list.
        • If Hungary blocks the rollover and refuses to compromise, all 1,400 currently Russian sanctioned individuals would be delisted.
      • Hungary is reportedly opposing a proposal, backed by all other EU members, to prolong the extension period from six to 12 months.
      • The package is expected to be passed by February 24.
    • On February 21, the EU urged its member countries to provide more ammunition to Ukraine from their stockpiles and from any orders that they might have already placed with the defense industry.
      • According to AP, some estimate Ukraine is firing up to 6,000 to 7,000 artillery shells daily – about the same that a small European country would order in a peace-time year. This is estimated to be only a third of the rounds that Russia is using.
  • Finland: Finland said that it will send three Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.
  • Germany: Economic Minister Robert Habeck plans to target the circumvention of EU Russia sanctions by tightening conditions for the export of possible dual-use goods and increasing the pressure on third countries continuing to sell German-origin goods in Moscow.
    • Germany’s largest arms manufacturer Rheimetall reported on February 20 that it expects the first batch of ammunition for anti-aircraft Gepard systems will be delivered to Ukraine by July. The manufacturer said it has doubled capacities in some sectors and tripled in others in response to the German Defense Ministry’s appeal to increase ammunition production.
  • Hungary: Prime Minister Orban delivered an annual state of the country address on February 18, noting that he wanted to keep Hungary out of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which he characterized as a “limited war between the troops of two Slavic countries”.
    • Orban added that the conflict in Ukraine shows Russia is “not strong enough” to pose a threat to NATO and claimed that only Hungary and the Vatican support peace.
      • Orban also blamed Hungary’s record-high inflation on EU sanctions against Russia. He said the Hungarian government will intervene in the economy to protect families and Hungarian businesses, including through consolidation of national control in various sectors.
    • Parliament will begin debating the ratification of the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO on March 1, with a final vote expected to take place the following week.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF): The IMF praised Ukraine’s leadership on February 20 for its economic management throughout the war. In a surprise visit to Kyiv, the head of the IMF said the economy is functioning despite tremendous challenges and pledged continued support.
  • International Olympic Committee (IOC): The IOC condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pledged to assist to Ukrainian athletes in every way possible in a February 22 statement. The IOC also said it stands by its existing ban on Russian and Belarusian flags and anthems being used at events but did not directly address criticism from countries over its plans to allow the involvement of athletes from Russia and Belarus at the 2024 Paris Summer games.
    • The U.S. and more than 30 other countries, including Canada and most of Europe support a proposed ban of Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing in international sports.
  • Ireland: Parliament passed a motion on February 23 to “strongly condemn without reservation” the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Prime Minister Varadkar said that Ireland will continue to stand with the Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” adding that it is “not a member of any military alliance” but that it is “not neutral” in the war.
    • The government approved the participation of up to 30 Defense Force personnel in the new established European Union Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine).
      • Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Martin,, said: “EUMAM Ukraine will provide vital training support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as the coordination of EU Member States’ activities delivering the training”.
  • Israel: On February 21, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel said that Israel is developing a pilot program for an early warning system to detect the approach of missiles and drones for Kyiv. This system will reportedly use radar to determine the incoming rockets and activate area-specific sirens instead of all sirens in the northern regions.
  • Italy: Prime Minister Meloni visited Kyiv on February 21, her first official visit, to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meloni reiterated Italy’s commitment to continued political, economic, and military support.
    • Italian Foreign Minister Tajani said it is “unlikely” Italy will donate fighter jets to Ukraine and that it is “practically impossible for Italian fighters to be sent”. Tajani noted that the issue had not been discussed “yet” but that they would have to coordinate with allies to figure out what kind of planes to send, as delivering different models to the Ukrainians doesn’t make sense.
  • Japan: Prime Minister Kishida announced on February 20 a new USD 5.5 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, as well as Japan’s hosting of an online G8 summit with Zelensky to mark the first anniversary of the war.
    • Japan has provided loans of more than JPY 70 billion (~USD 520 million) to Ukraine in emergency economic assistance and has accepted more than 2,000 displaced Ukrainians and helped them with housing assistance, support for jobs, and education.
  • Lithuania: President Nauseda urged the West on February 20 to cross “red lines” to deliver military aid to Ukraine. The leader said partners should not “waste the time” and needed to be “decisive, be united, and take decisions as quick as possible”.
  • Luxembourg: Defense Minister Francois Bausch announced the purchase of EUR 200 million (~USD 212 million) worth of satellite capacity from commercial satellite provider SEX, based in Luxembourg. Bausch said the purchase was a show of solidarity in support of Ukraine.
  • Moldova: President Sandu said a Russian plan to destroy the political situation in Moldova involved foreign actors “with military background, camouflaged in civilian clothes, to undertake violent actions, attacks on state institutions and taking hostages”. She offered no evidence. Also, on February 21, Prime Minister Recean said that Russia would like direct access to Chisinau’s airport to continue efforts to destabilize the Moldovan government.
    • Separately, on the same day, Putin revoked Decree 605 from 2012, which government Russia’s foreign police, including one provision of the decree which outlined Moscow’s “active participation in the search of solutions to the Transnistrian issue based on Moldova’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutrality, with a special status for Transnistria”.  
    • On February 23, Moldova dismissed Russian accusations that Ukraine is planning military action against the country’s pro-Russia region Transnistria.
  • NATO: In response to Putin’s national address on February 21, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said Russia is “preparing for more war”. He also noted that NATO is “increasingly concerned” that China is planning support for Russia.
    • Stoltenberg reiterated support for recent allies’ announcements on new tanks, heavy weaponry, and training for Ukraine troops, noting that “key capabilities must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize momentum”.
  • Netherlands: Prime Minister Rutte and the Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation made an unannounced rip to Kyiv on February 17. In a meeting with President Zelensky, Rutte assured his counterpart the Netherlands would continue to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” both in terms of military, humanitarian, and reconstruction aid. 
    • Rutte also noted the importance of accountability and not letting Russia’s crimes go unpunished, adding the Netherlands was committed to working with the ICC to gather evidence for Russian crimes in Ukraine. 
    • The government decided to expel 17 Russian diplomats from the Netherlands after negotiations with Moscow on the conditions under which new diplomats could be sent following 2022 expulsions failed to yield results. The government also cited Russian attempts to “place new intelligence officers under diplomatic cover in the Netherlands”.

 

  • North Macedonia: Defense Minister Petrovska reiterated that North Macedonia strongly condemns the Russian aggression against Ukraine, gave full support for its sovereignty and the right to self-defense, and called for "peace to be restored immediately” while at a joint press conference with her Ukrainian colleague Oleksei Reznikov in Kyiv on February 22.

 

  • Poland: Poland announced on February 21 that it will deliver 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in the next two to three weeks once Ukrainian troop training is complete.
    • Poland also expressed that it supports sending fighting jets to Kyiv but there is a way to go in achieving NATO consensus.
  • Portugal: Prime Minister Costa stated on February 20 in a televised interview that “peace is only possible with the victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia”. Costa also expressed pride that Portugal will be the only country other than Germany to send the Leopard 2 model A6 tank to Ukraine.
    • Portugal also expanded its NATO troop commitment to Lithuania and Romania and reinforced the country’s commitment to continue military aid to Ukraine and its ongoing support for Ukrainian refugees (58,000 as of February 20).
      • Costa also intends to help with Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan in the areas of food security, energy security, and health.
      • When asked whether Ukraine had changed the government’s views on China, Costa downplayed Chinese investment in Portugal, saying “our dependency is nowhere near the dependency of Germany” on Russia; we “can live without China”.
    • Portuguese Foreign Minister Cravinho accused Putin of making “absolutely delusional” allegations about the war in Ukraine during his February 21 state-of-the-union address. Cravinho also upheld the huge contrast between Putin’s remarks and the actions of U.S. President Biden. 
    • President Rebelo de Sousa announced on February 21 that he plans to personally present Zelensky with the Grand Collar of the Order of Liberty, Portugal’s highest honor, when he visits Kyiv, which he hopes will be “as soon as possible.”
  • Serbia: Vice President of the opposition Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP), Stefanovic told reporters on February 22 that it is in Serbia’s interest to join the EU as soon as possible and to align with the EU’s foreign policy positions, including on sanctions against Russia. 
    • Stefanovic, who also chairs the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee, stated that the government has jeopardized Serbia’s economic interests by failing to align with EU sanctions, claiming Serbia faces informal sanctions including potential suspension of EU funds and withdrawal of investors and companies.
    • NGO New Third Way released a report on February 22 noting that Serbian media reporting on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shifted over the past year to much more critical reporting on Moscow’s activities.
      • The NGO reviewed 15 media portals and more than 60,000 news items published since February 2022, and its report highlighted a pivotal shift after July 2022, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to have more battlefield success. At that point, most Serbian outlets began to shift the blame for the conflict to Russia and President Putin. 
  • Spain: Prime Minister Sanchez arrived in Kyiv on February 23 to meet with Zelensky. Sanchez tweeted that Spain “will stand by Ukraine and its people until peace returns to Europe”. Sanchez last visited Kyiv in April 2022.
    • The Minister of Defense Robles announced on February 22 that Spain will send six 2A4 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, with the potential to send more, if necessary.
    • Spain also received 14 wounded Ukrainian soldiers for treatment on February 21. More than 100 Ukrainian military personnel have been treated in Spanish hospitals since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Spain hosts about 168,000 refugees from Ukraine.
  • Sweden: Sweden is open to sending some of its Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, as it prepares to present another round of aid, which includes armored infantry fighting vehicles, which the defense minister said would be the country’s main contribution to Ukraine. Sweden is also preparing to send Ukraine the advanced Archer artillery system.
    • This announcement comes at the same time as the Swedish security police described Russia as the “single biggest threat” to Sweden, adding that the security situation in the Nordic countries and Europe is the “most serious” since the Cold War era.
    • It said that “It's happening through infiltration and the influencing of decision-makers. But also, by building up an ability to create an alternative social structure. For example, to have an alternative power of order”.
  • United Kingdom: British Defense Secretary Wallace said on February 22 that Challenger 2 battle tanks could arrive in Ukraine in “the spring”. Britain has promised 14 tanks but could offer more Wallace said.
    • Former British Prime Minister Johnson said he believes military aid to Ukraine will help the country win the war against Russia. He called on countries to provide Ukraine with more tanks, planes, and long-range artillery.
      • Johnson said the U.S. should give Ukraine F-16 fighter jets and called on the UK to do the same.
  • United States: President Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky on February 20. Biden announced an additional USD 500 million of U.S. assistance to Ukraine for howitzer shells, anti-tank missiles, air surveillance radars, and other aid; no funding would go to new advanced weaponry. The U.S. has provided more than USD 50 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.
    • Following his visit to Kyiv, President Biden returned to Poland and met with Polish President Duda and Moldovan President Sandu.
    • Secretary of State Blinken said on February 21 that Russia’s war in Ukraine has been a “strategic failure in every way”.
    • On February 18, Vice President Harris said that the U.S. has determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine and insisted “justice must be served” to those who perpetrated the acts.
    • Rep. Michael McCaul, the chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs committee, said that he sees “increasing momentum” toward providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and long-range Army Tactical Missile System rockets.
  • The Vatican: Pope Francis made a fresh call for peace, calling the war in Ukraine “absurd and cruel” on February 22. He appealed for a cease-fire and said the one-year mark of the conflict is “sad”.

Land Border Information

Figure 1. February 21 (latest data), Source: UNHCR

Figure 2. February 21 (latest data), Source: UNHCR

Cybersecurity Issues

  • (New) Hungary: Russia-controlled, Budapest-based International Investment Bank (IIB) was the victim of a cyberattack on February 17, the day the news broke that Bulgaria would officially terminate its membership in the bank in August 2023.
    • An IIB official said the intrusion had “resulted in an unauthorized mass dissemination of forged e-mails on behalf of certain bank officials”. Hackers also reportedly obtained and have begun distributing internal correspondence, documents, and other sensitive information.
    • The source of the attack is unknown.
  • (New) Italy: Pro-Russia hacking group NoName057 began a DDoS (denial of service) attack February 22 against Italian government and private-sector websites, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Carabinieri, Ministry of Defense, BPER Bank, and Telecom Italia. The attack appeared to cause only minor disruptions and was in the wake of Prime Minister Meloni’s first official visit to Kyiv on February 21.
    • NoName057 reportedly mentioned Meloni’s visit in a Telegram post and said it would “continue our fascinating journey through Russophobic Italy”.
  • (New) Netherlands: The chiefs of Dutch intelligence services released a joint report to parliament on February 20 assessing the threat posed by Russia is closer and graver than the average citizen assumes. In addition to Russia’s relentless “information war” against the West, the 32-page report outlines concrete actions Moscow has taken to undermine Dutch security, including cyber intrusions and attempts to map critical Dutch infrastructure, including internet cables, gas pipelines, and off-shore wind farms. 
    • The report notes Russia is undertaking “activities and preparations for sabotage and espionage”. The report cites a recent Russian operation aimed at using a ship to map data cables on the seabed and better understand how North Sea wind farms are controlled. 
  • United States: CISA encourages all critical infrastructure organizations to review joint CSA: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures of Indicted State-Sponsored Russian Cyber Actors Targeting the Energy Sector and apply the recommendations. For more information on Russian state-sponsored malicious cyber activity, see CISA's Russia Cyber Threat Overview and Advisories page.

Protest Activity

(New) Pro-Ukraine/anti-Russia protests are planned for February 24 and February 25 to commemorate the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian World Congress published a list showing more than 250 cities with demonstrations scheduled.

Crisis24 has also published a list of planned events in major European cities, including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and the UK. An OSAC member shared this resource, which documents a lot of these upcoming protests and events in support of Ukraine.

This list is circulating among protest groups, which lists companies perceived to be supporting President Putin through their alleged involvement in fossil fuels. Some of these companies have offices in the City of London, but likely elsewhere.  

The following demonstrations have been highlighted by U.S. embassies:

  • Hungary: Multiple demonstrations are taking place Friday, February 24.

LOCATION

TIME

PARTICIPANTS

ORGANIZER

PURPOSE

Istenhegyi út 84., district 12 (front of the Ukrainian Embassy)

19:00 – 22:00

200

Civil Base

Show of solidarity with Ukraine

Szabadság tér, Soviet Monument, district 5.

16:00 – 21:00

1,000

Private Individual

Commemorating the first anniversary of the start of the war

Kossuth tér, district 5.

18:00 – 22:00

5,000

Private Individual

Demonstration for Peace

Városháza park – Deák Ferenc tér – Bajcsy-Zsilinszky út – Andrássy út – Andrássy út 101. (front of the Russian Embassy)

17:00 – 22:00

500

Ukrainian Unity Association

Showing solidarity of Ukraine
  • Serbia: A Serbia-based association of Ukrainians are working to organize a solidarity march in central Belgrade on February 24. There is also a planned pro-Russia, pro-war counter march by nationalist groups.

New Open-Source Articles of Interest

  • Zelenskyy to hold press conference on anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine Ukrinform 
  • Interview: Ukrainian military intelligence chief Budanov: We have every chance to end the war this year UkrPravda 
  • Budanov: number of people in Putin’s circle cooperating with Ukrainian intelligence is growing NV via UkrPravda 
  • 87% of Ukrainians against territorial concessions to end war with Russia – poll Censor 
  • FM Kuleba Ukraine will not use Western jets to strike on Russian territory UkrPravda  
  • NAPC calls on Rada to pass law restoring e-declaration Ukrinform 
  • AntAC leader Shabunin: some Servant of the People MPs wasn’t to divvy up seized Russian assets in non-transparent way Censor  
  • Servant of the People MP Trukhin who figured in lingering scandal over alledged attempt to bribe traffic police after road accident has tendered resignation of his Rada seat Censor 
  • Russians cause almost $51 billion in environmental damage to Ukraine UkrPravda 
  • Russia’s invasion sent Ukraine 15 years back in terms of poverty issues World Bank Director for Eastern Europe Interfax 
  • Ukraine’s steel production down 6.5 times for January y-o-y Interfax  
  • UK Defense Minister Wallace: Russia’s war with Ukraine will last for at least another year Censor via LBC 
  • US and Russia firmed up their alliances on the eve of Feb.24 anniversary ZN via Politico 
  • Spanish PM Sanchez arrived in Ukraine, visited Bucha and Irpin Ukrinform 
  • Moldova denies Russian Defense Ministry's accusations against Ukraine over Transnistria UkrPravda  
  • Ukrainian forces kill 790 Russian soldiers and damage 16 Russian tanks on 22 February UkrPravda 
  • Russian missiles strike Kupyansk district, Kharkiv Oblast: people under rubble Ukrinform 
  • Three explosions in occupied Mariupol: Russian military hit at steelworks and airport Ukrinform 
  • Russian military jet crashed in Belgorod Oblast Censor 
  • Russian armored vehicles column spotted moving near border with Chernihiv Oblast ZN 
  • Border guards repel enemy attack near Bakhmut. Ukrinform 
  • Ukrainians were warned about a possible attack by Shahed drones in the coming hours. RBC 
  • Explosions are heard in Kharkiv, the city is under fire. The mayor warns about new launches. RBC 
  • There are hits and wounded in Kharkiv, the Russians are attacking infrastructure facilities. RBC 
  • Kherson and the region are under intense fire from the Russians: they aim at medical facilities and public places. UkrPravda 
  • In Mariupol, explosions were heard during the alarm, - mayor's adviser. RBC 
  • Russian ammo depot destroyed in Mariupol at night. Ukrinform 
  • Invaders accelerating, simplifying mobilization in Luhansk region. Ukrinform 
  • One killed, one injured in Russia's shelling of Donetsk region on Feb 21. Ukrinform 
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed Russians near Kreminna who were trying to break through. RBC 
  • Russian troops hit Kupyansk again: they hit a stadium and a kindergarten, there is an injured. RBC 
  • In the morning, the occupiers again attacked the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. RBC 
  • Head of intelligence Budanov on the end of the war: now is the 70th minute of a “football match", and the decisive battles will be in the spring" RBC 
  • “Money works wonders": Budanov commented on the increase in fires in Russia. RBC 
  • The occupying forces near Bakhmut change their tactics. They throw infantry into battle, not artillery or other equipment - Budanov. RBC 
  • There are no signs of Russian troops preparing for an attack in new directions on the anniversary of They act according to the "Donetsk scenario". The occupiers are preparing provocations in Melitopol and the region. RBC 
  • the invasion. But the enemy can resort to missile strikes. RBC 
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces has enough troops to carry out stabilization actions in the event of a repeated attack by the Russian army on Kyiv. RBC 
  • In Vinnytsia, SBU detained a man who recruited prisoners in Ukraine to the Wagner PMC. RBC 
  • Restrictions in Odesa and shutdown in 6 regions due to wind. What is the situation with the light. RBC 
  • Hungary tries to block EU sanctions against Russian oligarchs - Politico. RBC 
  • USAID transfers 6,000 tons of methanol to Ukrgazvydobuvanya. UkrPravda 
  • Zelenskyy plans to attend the NATO summit in Vilnius. UkrPravda 
  • President Zelenskyy proposes that the Council approve sanctions against financial institutions of the Russian Federation. RBC 

Resources Shared Among OSAC Members

OSAC Support

OSAC Europe team will be able to answer any questions at OSACeurope@state.gov.

Additional Resources

 

 

 

 

 

The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of State or any affiliated organization(s). Nor have these opinions been approved or sanctioned by these organizations. This product is unclassified based on the definitions in E.O. 13526. OSAC’s full disclaimer and copyright policy is available on our website at OSAC.gov/About/Disclaimer.

 

 

 

Attachments

OSAC-Ukraine SitRep 230223.pdf

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